Analytics firm CryptoQuant says Bitcoin may be entering the initial phase of a new bull market, with several key metrics, demand, liquidity, and valuation, shifting into positive territory. But the firm itself stresses this is not yet a confirmed reversal, and one decisive technical level still stands in the way.
The signals analysts spotted
Since August 17, Bitcoin has climbed roughly 24% and reached $80,000, briefly touching around $81,000 yesterday, its highest level since mid-May. But the main signal isn't the price itself, it's the sharp shift in market indicators.
The key one is the Bull Score, which jumped from 30 to 80 points in just a week. That's its highest reading since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin was trading near $124,000. The score combines ten different metrics, on-chain activity, demand, liquidity, and valuation, and right now 8 of the 10 are in bullish territory.
Demand backs up the shift. According to the firm, spot demand is growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December, and spot and futures demand are expanding together for the first time since early October 2025. CryptoQuant describes this as "genuine spot accumulation alongside returning leverage."
What's behind the rally
Two macro factors lit the fuse: the US Treasury's plan to double its buybacks of long-term bonds to at least $4 billion per operation, which adds liquidity to the financial system, and comments from President Trump about possible government Bitcoin purchases. Bitcoin still trades largely as a risk asset, so an injection of liquidity tends to lift it alongside other markets.
But here's the catch: $83,000
This is the most important part, and the piece you shouldn't skip. According to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, this is "a genuine regime shift, the initial phase of a new bull market", but it needs official confirmation.
That confirmation is a weekly close above the 365-day moving average, which currently sits around $83,000. CryptoQuant uses this average as the long-term dividing line between a strengthening and weakening market. Until price closes above that level for a full week, the firm views the move as an early-stage recovery, not a confirmed cycle. And notably, even yesterday's brief tap of ~$81,000 is still below that $83,000 confirmation level, what matters is a weekly close, not a short-lived spike.
The risks to keep in mind
CryptoQuant explicitly warns that the market looks short-term overheated. Traders' unrealized profit margins have spiked to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025. Whales realized a record $614 million in profit on August 20, and exchange inflows for BTC, ETH, and XRP have jumped, which often hints at near-term selling pressure. In other words, even in a bullish scenario, a sharp correction after such a fast run would be normal, even healthy.
Why it matters
CryptoQuant's signal is one of the most concrete pieces of evidence yet that the long downturn may be ending. When 8 of 10 independent metrics turn bullish at once, that carries more weight than price alone. But the difference between "initial phase" and "confirmed bull market" isn't a formality, it comes down to a single weekly close above $83,000. Until then, the smartest posture is cautious optimism: the signals are strong and the direction is encouraging, but confirmation still lies ahead.
What to watch: whether Bitcoin posts a weekly close above $83,000, whether spot ETF inflows continue, whether the overheated market cools without a deep reversal, and whether other assets follow Bitcoin higher.
This is educational information, not financial advice. Crypto is highly volatile; prices cited are as of publication and will change. Always do your own research.
